See Why 'Sultan' Joho will lose in August

Mombasa governor Hassan Joho .Photo/File

By now, you might have heard about a Mombasa politician popularly known as “The Sultan”. He is Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho. Governor 001.

First, let me clarify that when people call him “The Sultan” they do not necessarily mean he is a good leader. The traditional sultans of the East African coast were never popularly elected leaders. Rather, they were authoritarian rulers who believed they had the right to do so by force.

Governor Joho is not effective in the grassroots campaigns. He depends on his money. And that can sometimes give you a brief success. But in the end, money is not leadership. One person who can tell Joho about this is Kiambu Governor William Kabogo. He, too, is reported to have spent heavily campaigning for the Jubilee ticket for his reelection . And he, too, was dismissive of the other leaders in his county. He lost

Everyone I have spoken to says the same thing about Joho. And this is that while he can be very courteous to those who are above him in political stature such as ODM pleader Raila Odinga, he is extremely rude to those who he considers to be below him.

Ask any of the Mombasa MCAs who have worked with him closely for the past four years, and now do not want to work with him anymore. They will tell you that this is a man who treated them with contempt to a point they could not bear it any more.

Remember the way he treated Deputy Governor Hazel Katana? Joho’s people treated her with total contempt, and with the intention of humiliating her evicted her out of her office.

Even if Joho were a political giant — which he is not — we would have to consider that such giants fall in Kenyan politics all the time, if they forget that it is the people who vote for them.

We have the example of Ababu Namwamba, the Budalang’i MP and former ODM secretary general. A few years ago, he was always in the media, giving out statements, flying around in helicopters with his friend Joho, and, generally, acting tough. Now, he has been reduced to a Busia-based politician. Not long ago, he thought he had a lot of political influence on his own.

And so I come to the two main reasons why Joho cannot win.

First, there has been an awakening at the Coast in recent years. The coastal people are determined to end the many years of economic oppression and marginalisation they’ve endured for 50 years.

The man they call “The Sultan” is definitely not the leader who can help end the economic marginalisation of the coast communities. But there is a second point — an analysis of the key vote blocs.

The governor is unpopular among the Swahili-Arab community, to which he belongs. They will not vote for him. He is equally unpopular among many Mombasa residents, originally from Western Kenya — Luo and Luhya. This group has made it clear to Raila that they will not vote for Joho. He is equally unpopular among the Kikuyu business community, who have not forgiven him for his negative attitude towards President Uhuru Kenyatta. There, too, he will get no votes, not even from the many hawkers and people engaged in the informal sector.

Joho will also not get votes from the Mijikenda, who he has always treated with contempt and taken for granted as shown by how he handled Katana.

Joho’s well-paid advisers should tell him that he should clearly see the signs of defeat in the governor race, and stop pretending he is unbeatable.

The writer is Kongowea MCA