The battleline is clear. It is no longer just Nasa vs Jubilee, but those who want election on October 17th vs those who don’t.It can be argued that those who don’t want elections and Nasa are one and the same thing, but there is a big number that voted for Raila, that seeks to get done with this election. It is exhausting, polarizing and unhealthy for the country.
But like with most political pronouncements, Kenyans will soon retreat to their party/tribal positions, whether they currently disagree or not.
When the Supreme Court ruled that Uhuru’s win was null and void, they ordered that a fresh election be conducted within 60 days by the same IEBC they accused of botching the August 8th exercise. The drafters of the constitution did not foresee a situation where a body facing harsh accusations would be the same one to conduct a fresh exercise. But we have no alternative.
Nasa has spelt out their demands, what they are calling the ‘irreducible minimums’. This is a list of conditions that must be fulfilled before IEBC conducts a fresh exercise. Some of these include a list of officials who must resign, led by CEO Ezra Chiloba. They have also demanded France IT security firm OT Morpho be dropped and probed. Further, they want ballot papers printed by another firm other than Dubai based Al Ghurair.
It doesn’t take a very intelligent person to tell you that most of these demands are impossible, considering the tight timelines.
For instance, OT Morpho being the provider of the KIEMS kits and the entire transmission system, would take many months, most likely years and lots of money to replace. The same case with Al Ghurair. As IEBC recently explained, a printer is usually contracted for a time period exceeding the election date, so as to cater for unseen eventualities like by-election. Replacing Al Ghurair would lead to lots of contract termination penalties, potentially more printing charges at the new printer, and an uncertain delivery reality.
In 2013, there were claims that 2 million ‘dead’ voters resurrected and voted for Uhuru Kenyatta. Whether true or not, measures were taken to prevent that, and this year we had biometric identification. As a result, Al Ghurair was not faulted in any way, and the only complaints were in transmission and security features in the various forms.
So, what has Al Ghurair done for Nasa to demand their exclusion?
To most people, it is becoming apparent that these ‘irreducible minimums’ are designed to make it impossible for an election to happen. Indeed, if IEBC were to honour all of them, there would not be an election in the next several months, leave alone October 17th. Some estimates been thrown around are one and a half years, especially if OT Morpho is replaced. This is without even considering the cost implications.
Yet on social media, Nasa bloggers and lawyers have all of a sudden adopted this common stand – NO Election on October 17. Just a few days ago, it was a matter of boycotting the election. But now they have all changed positioned positions in what seems to be a well choreographed and carefully directed move.
These latest developments take us back to Uhuru and Ruto’s pronouncements that Raila is not willing to go into an election, but is seeking for ways to force a ‘nusu mkate’ government. In this case, after November 1st, the country will be thrown into constitutional uncertainty and at that point Nasa lawyers will be on standby to challenge Uhuru’s presidency at any court.
It is therefore becoming very difficult to convince people that this was not Raila’s plan all along.
What do you think?
Ⓒ 2014 Nairobi Wire
Please do not enter any spam link in comment box